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Nfl Game Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet on Buffalo (+6) in Week 2

The 2008 season has had an unexpected start for 2 teams playing this coming weekend: the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills, of course, trounced the Seahawks in their opener at home in what the betting public viewed as toss-up versus the spread going into the game.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, proved to be a major disappointment in their first game, falling to the Titans 17-10 despite being a 3 point favourite on the road.

So, will the football universe right itself in Week 2? Will the Jaguars regain their playoff form from 2007 and reveal the Bills to be an early-season pretender in the battle for the suddenly wide-open AFC-East crown? Not so fast I say, there are a number of trends at play in this game that seems to favour a continuation of what we saw in Week 1.

Reason #1
This trend is as basic as they come, but, it's a fact: teams coming off a big SU win (of > 21 points) in Week 1 are a dynamite 22-12 ATS in Week 2 and were 2-1 ATS in 2007. When a team starts the season on a roll, their momentum usually continues, at least thru Week 2 anyway.

Reason #2
The 2nd reason the Bills look pretty good this week arises from a situation favouring teams coming off a bad-to-mediocre season, that also put up some decent rushing numbers in Week 1 or Week 2 of the following campaign.

It's logic goes like this: Since 1994, Road Favs (or Road Dogs of , are a blistering 68-20 ATS versus the number.

It's seems pretty clear that teams in this situation have made some obvious improvements, but, are undoubtedly still being undervalued by a sceptical betting public placing too much stock in their performance from last season.

Reason #3
I touched on rushing yardage above and here is another trend that also relies heavily on how well a team is currently running the ball.

Here are the details:

Teams with a Big-Rush% For (BRY%F) > 50% and a Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average , that also have a Successful Rushing Play% (SRP%F) at least 2.5 points higher than their opponents, are a whopping 127-59 ATS since 2001 and were 32-11 ATS in 2006 alone.

Currently, Buffalo has a BRY%F of 50.5%, meaning, over half of their rushing yardage last week came from runs of 10+ yards, while their PBEPA is currently 0.0 and their SRP%F is an excellent 42.9%, compared with Jacksonville's SRP%F of 37.5%.

All this adds up to further trouble for the Jags in Week 2, or, at least a closely fought match coming down to a last-minute field-goal decision in which the Bills will prevail ATS, either way.

Now, seeing as this is a '3 Reasons' article, I will refrain from describing yet another trend working in Buffalo's favour this week, but, by visiting my site and following the 'Office Pool Picks' link, you can read about this extra situation on Page 6 of the Game Sheets package for this match.

Buffalo's Confidence percentage this week to cover is: 63%

 

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

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Jacksonville Jaguars 1 Jaguar Head Flip Flop Pendant - Sterling Silver Jewelry $44.23 You often see shirts, caps and jackets that feature logos from your favorite affiliation, phrase, hobby and sport. Now you can add high quality jewelry products to the list!You will love the exciting collections available! There are also more than 300 universities and sports teams to choose from so you can build a collection that is perfect for you.Logo Art manufactures the broadest and most elegant collection of collegiate and sports licensed jewelry products ever. For other jewelry items for the Jacksonville Jaguars, click here.

Jacksonville Jaguars 5/8 Jaguar Head Flip Flop Charm - Sterling Silver Jewelry $38.46 You often see shirts, caps and jackets that feature logos from your favorite affiliation, phrase, hobby and sport. Now you can add high quality jewelry products to the list!You will love the exciting collections available! There are also more than 300 universities and sports teams to choose from so you can build a collection that is perfect for you.Logo Art manufactures the broadest and most elegant collection of collegiate and sports licensed jewelry products ever. For other jewelry items for the Jacksonville Jaguars, click here.

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Jacksonville Jaguars Micro Fiber Queen Sheet Set $59.99 Never will you have to choose between comfort and supporting your Jacksonville Jaguars ever again. With this Jacksonville Jaguars Micro Fiber Queen Sheet Set you will be nice and cozy will showing off your Jaguars pride. Sheets are flat and fitted and sport white-on-white print with a sport specific design. 100% Cotton so that you feel maximum comfort Machine washable and easy to fold Only pillowcases contain a team logo Officially Licensed

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Jacksonville Jaguars Micro Fiber Full Sheet Set $59.99 Never will you have to choose between comfort and supporting your Jacksonville Jaguars ever again. With this Jacksonville Jaguars Micro Fiber Full Sheet Set you will be nice and cozy will showing off your Jaguars pride. Sheets are flat and fitted and sport white-on-white print with a sport specific design. 100% Cotton so that you feel maximum comfort Machine washable and easy to fold Only pillowcases contain a team logo Officially Licensed

Jacksonville Jaguars Paper Cube $9.99 This Team Paper Cube is 3.5" inches square containing 700 sheets of paper. Your Team logo is featured on all four sides.

Jacksonville Jaguars Giant 1 7/8 W x 1 1/2 H Jaguar Head Pendant - 14KT Gold Jewelry $2500 Enjoy this official NFL licensed Jacksonville Jaguars pendant. A great gift for any Jacksonville Jaguars fan! The image shown is representative, the item that will be shipped to you will be the same design but in 14K Gold. You often see shirts, caps and jackets that feature logos from your favorite collegiate and professional sports teams. Now you can add high quality jewelry products to the list!You will love the exciting collections available for each school and team! There are more than 300 universities and sports teams to choose from so you can build a collection that is perfect for you.Logo Art manufactures the broadest and most elegant collection of collegiate and sports licensed jewelry products ever. Most products are available in 14k gold and sterling silver. To see a list of all necklaces available, click here.To order separator beads, click here.The majority of the pendants and charms can also be made into rings, earrings, tie tacks, cuff links and key rings. Please contact Online Sports at 1-800-856-2638 for availability and pricing.Following is an example of what you can do with pendants, charms, and separator beads to make a very unique gift or team spirit item.

Jacksonville Jaguars Giant 1 7/8 W x 1 1/2 H Jaguar Head Pendant - Sterling Silver Jewelry $106 Enjoy this official NFL licensed Jacksonville Jaguars pendant. A great gift for any Jacksonville Jaguars fan! You often see shirts, caps and jackets that feature logos from your favorite collegiate and professional sports teams. Now you can add high quality jewelry products to the list!You will love the exciting collections available for each school and team! There are more than 300 universities and sports teams to choose from so you can build a collection that is perfect for you.Logo Art manufactures the broadest and most elegant collection of collegiate and sports licensed jewelry products ever. Most products are available in 14k gold and sterling silver. To see a list of all necklaces available, click here.To order separator beads, click here.The majority of the pendants and charms can also be made into rings, earrings, tie tacks, cuff links and key rings. Please contact Online Sports at 1-800-856-2638 for availability and pricing.Following is an example of what you can do with pendants, charms, and separator beads to make a very unique gift or team spirit item.

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