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Colts Super

Betting the Super Bowl Total

I have spent most of the last week scratching my head trying to figure out what to do with the Super Bowl total. The problem is that I can see good arguments for both sides of the number. The total is at 48.5 right now, and it doesn't seem as of now that the bookies have much interest in moving very far from that number. I'm just a writer and a guy who's trying to figure out what is going to happen, so this is not in any way an official pick. What I'm going to do, though, is lay out the argument both for going over and for going under, and then I will decide which way I see it going. Come along for the ride:

Over

Trends - There are a huge number of trends pointing towards an over. Indianapolis has gone over seven times in their last nine as road favorites. They have gone over eight of the last 11 times that they have played on grass. The Colts have gone over in 42 of their last 61 games which have followed a game with at least 250 yards of passing. Chicago is 13-3 for the over on grass. The Bears have an impressive overall record over their last 22 games - 16-5-1. The Bears have gone over in their last four playoff games. They've gone over eight of the last nine games following a game in which they have allowed less than 90 yards rushing. They are 5-1 going over in a game after scoring 30 or more in the previous game. Chicago is 6-2-1 in last nine against teams with a winning record, and 5-2-1 in their last eight following an ATS win. You could dig up a hundred more trends to support this position if you're a bit creative as well.

Bears' defense - As well regarded as the Chicago defensive unit is, there have been a fair number of unimpressive scoreboard performances of late. St. Louis, with an offense not entirely dissimilar to Indianapolis, scored 27. Tampa Bay put up 31. Detroit, another pass-heavy team, posted 21. Seattle managed 24. Any one of those totals could arguably be enough to put the total over, especially if you are of the opinion that the spread is fairly accurate and representative of the match-up.

Bears' offense - Ignoring the completely irrelevant game against Detroit to end the season, the Bears have scored at least 26 points their last six games. Despite periodic problems both with the passing game and the running game, the team still finds all sorts of ways to put up points. The Bears have a reasonably balanced offense to try to exploit the Colts, and the O-line should be able to control an Indy pass rush that is solid but isn't among the most aggressive in the league. Grossman has shown that he can be effective if he can find rhythm early on. If he does that then the Bears certainly have the ability to put up the numbers they need to go over.

Colts' offense - Up until the start of the second half against New England it was pretty easy to think that the Colts' offense had disappeared. Manning has struggled throughout the playoffs, and field goal kicking had become the primary weapon. The explosiveness that the Colts showed in their two most recent quarters, though, could be viewed as a re-awakening of an offensive giant. That confidence could carry over and help push the total over.

Summary - The argument to go over is supported by trends and comes down to two proven offenses combined with a Colts' defense that could be overachieving and a Bears defense that is struggling with injuries and has been underachieving. 48.5 points is easily within range of these offenses if they maintain the form of their last game.

Under

Trends - There are trends to support the under as well. Chicago has gone under 39 times in the last 59 games in which they were underdogs. They've gone under 45 times in the last 66 games which have followed games in which they have had less than 150 yards of passing. They have gone under in six of their last eight games as underdogs. Indianapolis has gone under in five of their last seven against teams with a winning record. They have gone under in six of eight games following a straight up win. The game last week against the Patriots was the only playoff game in the last five that the Colts have gone over. The Colts are also 5-1 under in their last six road playoff games.

Colts vs. comparable offenses - The Bears defense at their best could be, very loosely, compared to Baltimore and Dallas. Indy struggled against both of those teams, and didn't come at all close to going over this total in those games.

Bears vs. Saints - The Bears played a bend-but-don't-break defense that was remarkably effective at keeping the Saints off the scoreboard. If it weren't for big plays then the Saints would have accomplished nothing at all. Though the Colts arguably have more offensive talent than the Saints, they certainly haven't been playing as well as a unit over the whole playoffs as the Saints did. If Chicago did what they did to the Saints, then it seems possible that they could do the same thing to the Colts. If the Colts don't score a lot then it seems unlikely that the total goes over.

Familiarity - The head coaches, Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy, have worked together in the past and are very close to this day. That means that they know each other's philosophies and approaches. With few secrets, it seems possible that both teams will play a conservative style so that the opposing coach can't exploit it. That could keep the total low.

Summary - The Colts have struggled against stout defenses over the second half of the season. The Bears defense is playing well, and both coaches will be playing close to their vests. All factors could keep the score low.

My take - The biggest problem I face here is that I tend to think that the total is reasonably accurate. I could see a score somewhere in the 28-21 range, which is right in the range of the posted total. Ultimately, I would choose the over if I were forced to take a side. Chicago seems to be able to find ways to score, and I don't have a ton of faith in the Indianapolis defense despite some of their recent performances. I don't think that the Colts offense will be as good as it was in the second half last week, but I do think that they will be improved compared to the first two playoff games. It basically comes down to this - I feel better about betting against both defenses locking down their opponents than I do about betting that both units will hold their ground.

About the Author

Check Doc's Sports site for daily sports betting articles, Super Bowl Picks, Player Prop Bets info, and Super Bowl Point Spread.

How many Packers fans would rather see the pats make the super bowl because the Colts and Jags are better?

I'm thinking after seeing some of the pats and Colts games, it might be better to play the pats in the super bowl. I doubt they make it past the Jags though, and if they do the Colts will put a hurtin on em. Bet on it!

Doesn't matter who The Pack plays, it will cement Favre's legend as the best football player to ever play.

Saints vs Colts *** Super Bowl 2010 *** Full Game Download

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Super Bowl Champions - Indianapolis Colts $23.64 No Synopsis Available

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl Framed Team Championship Series $69 Display your Colts pride with this executive style framed piece that commemorates their first championship. This 14½� x 27½� officially licensed piece celebrates the the season we will always remember. Proudly made in the USA.

Indianapolis Colts 16x24 Jacquard Golf Towel $20.99 You're one stroke behind as you walk up to the 18th green and only an eagle putt can secure victory. Wipe the sweat off your brow with this Indianapolis Colts Golf Towel- bring back memories of heroic Colts victories- and gain that added confidence you need to sink the miracle putt. Featuring a prominently-displayed Colts logo and team name on the front- this Indianapolis Colts Golf Towel will undoubtedly make a fine addition to any Indianapolis Colts fan's golf bag. Meaures approximately 16'' x 24'' Super-soft- heavyweight 100% cotton velour material is hard on sweat but soft on your face Officially licensed by the NFL

Indianapolis Colts 16x26 Embroidered Tri-Fold Towel $19.99 Whether you're toweling off after a nice hot shower- or wiping the sweat from your brow on the 18th green- do so while sporting Colts pride with this Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Towel. Featuring a Colts team trademark embroidery- this Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Towel will undoubtedly make a fine addition to any Indianapolis Colts fan's towel rack or golf bag. Swivel clip attachment easily attaches to any golf bag Tri-fold design provides a tight look Measures a generous 16'' x 26'' Super-soft- premium weight 100% cotton velour is tough on moisture yet soft on skin Officially licensed by the NFL

Colts: The Complete History [2 Discs] $11.83 The home video release NFL: History of the Colts jam packs into one program nearly six hours of highlights from the 50+-year history of one of America's top-ranked football teams, The Colts - in both their Baltimore (1953-1984) and Indianapolis (1984 - present) phases. The first half incorporates an extensive overview of the history of the Baltimore Colts, including flashbacks to the 1958 and 1959 championships and Super Bowl V and covering the team's accomplishments throughout the 1960s, '70s, and early '80s. The second half of the program offers a sweeping panorama of the Indianapolis Colts, including the team's controversial decision to relocate to the Midwest, its infamous rebound in the 1995 AFC Championship, and the jaw-dropping heroics of Peyton Manning. Throughout, the program features extensive footage of such legends as Johnny Unitas, Don Shula, Marvin Harrison, Raymond Berry and coach Tony Dungy. ~ Nathan Southern, Rovi

Indianapolis Colts Adam Vinatieri Super Bowl 41 Champ Forever Collectibles "Ring" Bobble $34.22 Indianapolis Colts Adam Vinatieri Super Bowl 41 Champ Forever Collectibles "Ring" Bobble This bobble head commemorates the Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl 41 victory! Each bobble head comes on a Super Bowl 41 logo base which is shaped like and features the Super Bowl 41 logo. A ring with the Colts logo is situated on the center of the base. Each piece is hand painted and features the high quality detailing you have grown to expect from Forever Collectibles! Product enhancements by the product manufacturer may result in the item(s) being slightly different than they appear in the images posted.

Marvin Harrison Indianapolis Colts UnAutographed Goralski Lithograph LE188 $45.9 Marvin Harrison Indianapolis Colts UnAutographed Goralski Lithograph LE188 Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champion Marvin Harrison Unsigned Lithograph by Artist Andrew Goralski. Limited Edition of 188.

NFL Indianapolis Colts Road to XLI DVD $39.99 Between Peyton Manning's arrival in Indianapolis and the start of the 2006 season, the Colts made six post-season appearances - and failed to reach the Super Bowl each time. But on February 4, 2007, Manning and the Colts sealed the franchise's first World Championship since 1971 with a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. For head coach Tony Dungy's squad, the Road to XLI saw the defense transform itself into a run-stuffing force, while Manning showed true championship mettle in a heart-stopping comeback against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Now with this unforgettable four-disc set, relive the Colts run with the original network broadcasts of each of their post-season games. Follow the Colts from their wins over Kansas City and Baltimore, through their epic battle with New England, to a rainy night in South Florida, where the Colts toppled the Bears to become Super Bowl XLI Champions.

Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning Super Bowl 41 Champ Forever Collectibles Knucklehead Bobble $30.04 Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning Super Bowl 41 Champ Forever Collectibles Knucklehead Bobble This knucklehead commemorates the Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl 41 victory! This bobble head comes to you in a classic 1950Â’s style! In front of each figure is a raised piece which features the Super Bowl 41 logo and Colts logo. Each figure is hand painted and features the high quality detailing you have grown to expect from Forever Collectibles! Product enhancements by the product manufacturer may result in the item(s) being slightly different than they appear in the images posted.

Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts - Super Bowl XLI Action - Autographed 8x10 Photograph $158.99 Peyton Manning signed Colts Super Bowl XLI action 8x10 photo. Item comes with a Mounted Memories certificate of authenticity (COA) and tamper-proof numbered hologram that can be verified online.

NFL: America's Game: 1970 Baltimore Colts $16.98 In 1971 the Baltimore Colts returned to the Super Bowl for the first time since their demoralizing defeat to the Jets. Often dubbed the Blunder Bowl, Super Bowl V was filled with turnovers and penalties as the Colts eventually worked their way to a 16-13 victory against the Dallas Cowboys. This unpredictable game is also notable for being the first Super Bowl played after the AFL and NFL merger, and the first played on artificial turf.

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions Ticket Frame $149 The ultimate item for displaying your Super Bowl XLIII ticket. The Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions Ticket Frame combines your full- untorn ticket and personal picture with headlines- statistics- game story- and 8-by-10 photo. Let our Super Bowl Ticket Frame capture your memory of being part of NFL history. Headlines trumpeting the championship. 8-by-10 photo from the Super Bowl victory celebration (as shown). 350-word story compiled by our staff of professional writers. Complete Super Bowl statistics for both teams. Place holder for your untorn Super Bowl ticket- measuring 2 5/8"(W) by 7 1/8"(H)- that utilizes professional-grade mounting corners to preserve the condition and value of your ticket (ticket shown in sample not included). Place for your personal 4-by-6 picture taken during your Super Bowl experience (fan photo shown in sample not included). Easy-to-follow instructions for adding your ticket and photo. Officially licensed by the NFL. Double matted in team colors using white-core mat board and a high-grade black metal frame for a boardroom-quality presentation. Overall size 18"(H) by 22"(W).

The Indianapolis Colts $6.16 The Indianapolis Colts

Starting Colts $11.16 Starting Colts

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions DVD $24.99 Own the most anticipated and watched sporting event of the year. Complete with highlights from the regular season- playoffs and the big game itself. The 2007 release will contain over 3 full hours of Super Bowl coverage and behind the scenes action.Note: The complete Game is Not on the DVD just the highlights.

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl V Mini-Mega Ticket $23.99 Officially licensed by the NFL- Mini-Mega Tickets are made from authentic NFL tickets. Mini-Mega Tickets are approximately 200% larger than their original ticket size and printed directly on 1/4-inch thick rigid PVC board. They are perfect for autographs. Mini-Mega Tickets make great wall art as they include a flexible wall hanger on their back. Super Bowl V was played Jan. 17- 1971 at the Orange Bowl in Miami. The Baltimore Colts defeated the Dallas Cowboys 16-13. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley had two interceptions and was named MVP. Overall Size: 5 1/2 (W) x 14 (H) x 1/4 (D) Product shown in packaging

Indianapolis Colts - Triple Threat - Framed Collectible Piece $189.99 The Indianapolis Colts high powered offense features three of the most talented players in the game today. Peyton Manning- Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison assisted the Colts to their first Super Bowl championship since 1971 and have been captured in this one of a kind collectible. The three 8x10 Super Bowl XLI action photos are handsomely matted in suede with team colors and framed in a wood frame. It also includes an engraved descriptive plate with statistics from each players career. A must for a true Colts fan. The finished piece measures 32 3/4" x 21 3/4".

Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions Ticket Frame Jr. $119 The perfect item for displaying your Super Bowl XLIII ticket. The Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions Ticket Frame Jr. combines your full- untorn ticket with headlines- statistics- and 8-by-10 photo. Let our Super Bowl Ticket Frame Jr. capture your memory of being part of NFL history. Headlines trumpeting the championship. 8-by-10 photo from the Super Bowl victory celebration (as shown). Complete Super Bowl statistics for both teams. Place holder for your standard untorn Super Bowl ticket- measuring 2 5/8"(W) by 7 1/8"(H)- that utilizes professional-grade mounting corners to preserve the condition and value of your ticket (ticket shown in sample not included). Easy-to-follow instructions for adding your ticket. Officially licensed by the NFL. Double matted in team colors using white-core mat board and a high-grade black metal frame for a boardroom-quality presentation. Overall size 18"(H) by 18"(W).

Encore Select 520FBINDXLI Super Bowl XLI Champion Indianapolis Colts 12 in. x 15 in. Plaques $36.45 Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl XLI Champions 12 x 15 Statistic Plaque. The Plaque Highlights the Colts Run to the Super Bowl. This Wonderful Memorabilia Comes to You Ready to Hang on Your Wall (All You Need is a Nail). This is an Absolutely Gorgeous Piece of Memorabilia That Would Look Truly Spectacular in Your Home Business or Office. Impress Your Friends Family Employees Colleagues and Business Associates with This Stunning Piece of Memorabilia Hanging on Your Wall. What a Great Collectors Item.

Indianapolis Colts NFL Commemorative Super Bowl XLI Champions Peterbilt Tractor-Trailer $19.99 Congratulations Indianapolis Colts Fans. Celebrate the Super Bowl Champions with this commemorative Super Bowl XLI Championship die-cast Peterbilt Tractor Trailer.  This 1:80 scale die cast vehicle is decorated with the Colts logo and colors as well as the Super Bowl XLI logo.  This NFL licensed limited edition die-cast collector’s item is sure to sell out so get yours before they’re gone. This item will go into production directly after the Super Bowl and will not be availble to ship until approximately May- 3 2007.

Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Trifold Wallet $32.99 You'll be happy to pickup the tab just to show off this Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Trifold Wallet. Made of genuine leather exteriors- with genuine leather interior panels and pockets with turned edges for easy storage for plastic cards. Bill compartments of super strength nylon trimmed in leather All team logos of rich- colorful embroidery for long lasting wear Officially licensed by the NFL

Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Bifold Wallet $32.99 Keep a close eye on this wallet because your friends will definitely be jealous. The Indianapolis Colts Embroidered Billfold Wallet features genuine leather exteriors- with genuine leather interior panels and pockets with turned edges for easy storage for plastic cards. Bill compartments of super strength nylon trimmed in leather All team logos of rich- colorful embroidery for long lasting wear Officially licensed by the NFL

Indianapolis Colts Blue Pillow Pet $29.99 Cuddle and snuggle with the Indianapolis Colts Pillow Pet by Fabrique! This unique and original pillow pet features your favorite team logo and colors in the shape of a mascot or unique animal. Just unfasten its belly and the pet becomes an 18 inch pillow. Made of high quality- super-soft chenille with heavy-duty stitching. 100% Polyester Measures approximately 18" L x 11" W Spot Clean For ages 3 years old and up Officially licensed by the NFL

Tags: bowl, colts, colts super bowl, colts super bowl champions, colts super bowl ring, colts super bowl roster, colts super bowl wins, football, nfl, peyton

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